A NEW DEEP STATE FOR THE TECHNOLOGY AGE

Why Deep State/Establishment is Necessary & When Should it be Replaced?

In Défense of the Deep State or Establishment?

GREAT NATIONS are built by GREAT ELITES. These elites are referred to as the Deep State, the System, or the Establishment etc. and have special privileges. They are the primal decision-making group in the state and have out-sized influence and dominance.

A hierarchy with the Deep State or Establishment at the top is needed for cohesive and orderly functioning of the state. Without this hierarchy, there will be chaos.

Can there be an orchestra without a conductor? No, so hierarchy is innate to functioning of human systems. We may dislike the deep state or establishment, but they are essential to achieve collective goals and prevent chaos.

QUALITY  OF  DEEP  STATE DETERMINES  IF YOUR NATION WINS AGAINST OTHER NATIONS

COMPETITION  BETWEEN CHINA   AND  USA  IS  SIMPLY A  FIGHT  FOR  DOMINANCE BETWEEN  POLITBURO  OF  THE   COMMUNIST PARTY  AND  THE  DEEP  STATE  OF  U.S.A.

Hierarchies also exist in nature -  the silver-backed gorilla of a pride or the alpha wolf of a pack are akin to the deep state or establishment and exert dominance over their members, which is necessary for groups success and survival.

It is misleading to think of war or competition between nations as competition between the citizens. It’s war or competition between ruling elites or the deep states of respective countries

for greater power, prestige and resources – the more competent or organised ruling elite wins, gaining power or wealth for the country, with its citizens benefiting concurrently.

In ancient times, largest share of a war booty was claimed by the Royal Family, and spoils were shared with nobles and generals (together forming the deep state).

Stakes are high for the deep state to perform and win against the deep state of other countries. Loss would result in losing your kingdom, your land, slavery and possible execution. When Raja Prithviraj Chauhan lost the Battle of Tarain II, he lost his kingdom, his life and wives committed “Jauhar” or mass self-immolation. A high price for being at the top of deep state.

Since modern enlightenment and rise of liberal democracies, competition between states is not determined by war only. States win or lose through economic or trade competition, soft power projection, diplomacy at multilateral institutions like the United Nations. Therefore, modernization or evolution of deep states is critical – e.g. harness emerging technologies for benefit of the state- because the difference between being the citizen of a winning vs. losing deep state is significant in terms of wealth, wellbeing and prestige.

What Citizens Demand from their Deep State or Establishment?

Throughout human history, deep states have existed. Even the greatest emperor, founder of Roman Empire and Dictator of Life, Julius Caeser needed a network of deep state lieutenants. These were Marc, Titus, Brutus, Crassus. The twelve knights of the round table like Lancelot, Galahad and Percival formed the deep state of mythical King Arthur.

THE  DEEP  STATE  CREATES  &  DETERMINES  THE  SUCCESS  OR  FAILURE  OF  THE  STATE

AND  VICE VERSA

As success or failure of establishment or deep state determines the fate of a country and its citizens, it is in citizen’s interest that their establishment or deep state is:

1)      Capable and competent to protect, to project soft/ hard power and create prosperity

2)      Evolving and modernizing with times to remain ahead of other nations

3)      Deep State creates cohesiveness between state and citizens for internal stability by protecting the interest of the state rather than their own self-interest (Establishment must prioritize success of the State above its own)

The ability of Deep State or Establishment to evolve, modernize with changing economics and technology has significant impact on wealth, well-being and prestige of citizens.

WHEN  THE  STATES  EVOLVED >> NATURE  OF  DEEP  STATE  EVOLVED

AND

WHEN  DEEP  STATES  EVOLVED  >>  THE  STATE  EVOLVED ALSO

In all instances, one deep state lost to other with stronger economics, more advanced technology of the times and greater cohesiveness of deep state with the citizens leading to internally stronger nations.

How Deep States are Replaced?

As the financial and power stakes are high, and deep states are so entrenched that they seldom change because of ordinary course of politics, debate or negotiations between the local interest groups. No establishment or deep state gives up power willingly.

A change of deep state has always been accompanied by a defeat in war that may result in colonization or balkanization of the state, or economic collapse or a people’s revolution.

Entrenched deep states fail due to lack of adaptation or modernization that results in losing to more competent, technologically advanced deep states.

Change of Deep State Due to Defeat in War

1)      Change from the Czarists Deep State to Bolsheviks after the defeat of Czarist Russia in World War I. Czar Nicolai II was already weakened due to unpopular autocratic rule, half-hearted reforms in the face of the 1905 Revolution, brutal suppression of protestors and what was seen as an incompetent mobilization of the Russian army.

2)      Ottoman Empire resisted industrialization and governance reforms advocated by the “Young Ottomans” and “Young Turks” and were eventually defeated by the deep state of industrialized Europe in World War I. This resulted in the balkanization and colonization of Ottoman Empire, except the Anatolian heartland and a complete ousting and replacing of the decaying Ottoman deep state by a secular Kemalist deep state.

3)      The Moghul Empire was defeated by British East India Company, who mastered warfare with gun powder and cannons while the Moghuls floundered their wealth on extravagance and self-indulgence. A more well-organised, modern deep state defeated the Moghuls.

Change of Deep State Triggered by Economic Collapse:

1)      The deep state of the Soviet Communist Party Politburo lasted till 1991, followed by a period of chaos and economic collapse that led to its ouster. Under Boris Yeltsin, the old deep state suffered infighting and capturing wealth for itself through the Oligarchs. Until ex KGB/ FSB Vladimir Putin consolidated the deep state and delivered prosperity to Russians with GDP growing from $0.26Tn in 2000 to $2.0Tn in 2023.

2)      The Kemalist deep state comprising of military, judiciary and Istanbul based businesses were ousted by PM Erdogan and his new deep state drawn from the Anatolian heartland after Turkey’s economic collapse of 2002. The AK Party coalition showed stronger economic performance with GDP growing 4x in the first decade of its rule and permanently ousted the Kemalist deep state.

3)      The Shogunate Japan’s deep state did not change their old traditions and were defeated and replaced by the modernizers of the Meiji Reformation, who foresaw that without industrialization and economic reforms they would be colonized by the western powers.

DEEP  STATES  CHANGE  WHEN  THEY  FAIL  TO  ADAPT  TO  NEW  TECHNOLOGIES  AND ECONOMIC  REALITIES.

WILL  A.I.  MARK  END  OF  EXISTING  DEEP  STATE  AND  BRING  FORTH  A  NEW  ONE?

This transition of power happens, when the losing deep state failed to competently lead their citizens, improve or innovate with time or act in the larger interest of the citizens and the state in the domain of national security and economics.

Simply put, a country’s establishment is replaced when it fails to deliver for its citizens or  loses contest against a more competent, advanced or socially establishment of another state. Deep state with a more powerful ideology for state cohesion, prosperity and strength wins.

Largest Creative Destruction of Deep States in History?

The largest transition of power between an existing and successor deep state happened during the enlightenment period and the industrial revolution.

It was in pattern of “Schumpeter's Creative Destructive”. New military or industrial technologies or governance systems made some existing deep state of war lords or feudal obsolete, forcing countries to adapt or fail. This process led to decline of some deep states and their empires, while it massively increased power of other deep states. 

Industrial inventions resulted in transfer of power from the deep state of landed noblemen to the entrepreneur or the inventor. The old system resisted, such as the Machine Breakers in Europe who destroyed new inventions or holding onto to slavery as a captive means of production for the landed “nobility” of the Confederacy. But new ideas, ideologies and inventions prevailed, like in the American Civil War, that catalysed emergence of not only the new deep state of USA, but of the western hemisphere.

At the same time, enlightenment created the modern liberal democracy which rendered kings or royalty ineffective in providing continuation and stability because elections can determine the next “king”, more competent than the prodigal prince or princess, without a bloody succession war requiring expenditure on “janissary” or royal legion.

Voting created the added advantage of an “illusion of participation” and empowerment of citizens in governance, necessary now that the state required voluntary provision of labour, skills and intellect of citizens for entrepreneurship and industrial production versus forced slave labour working on farms of the landed noblemen.

INDUSTRIALIZATION AND LIBERAL DEMOCRACY PERISHED THE RIGID, STAGNANT OLD DEEP STATE AND USHERED IN NEW DEEP STATE

The resulting establishment formed from 19th century in North America and Europe comprised of

1)      business elites 

2)      political-bureaucratic elites

3)      defence-industrial elites

This is reflected in modern-day equivalent of Bilderberg Group and Tri-lateral Commission.

This Industrial age deep state or establishment has delivered the greatest period of peace and prosperity for humanity. Last two hundred years have been the best for longevity, education, growth, freedoms with even fewer wars than any other time in human history.

From Industrial Age Establishment to Tech Age Establishment?

The moment is nearing for the next biggest transition of industrial age deep state to a new one that is more capable and adept at delivering economic performance and national security in the technology age.

The threat to the industrial age deep state or establishment is

NOT competently able to create prosperity in the last fifty years

-       Median income of US households has increased by 0.7% between 1990 and 2020 versus inflation of 2.2%. Therefore, an average household in 2020 has 65% of the income in 1990

-       42% of American adults lived in middle-income households in 2020, down from 62% in 1970, which has created middle class discontent

NOT evolving or modernizing governance systems or latest technology

-       There is a significant increase in distrust of democracy and politicians even within developed economies. Public trust in US federal government has decreased from 77% in 1970 to only 20% in 2022

NOT Protecting the interest of the State and instead become self-serving

-       While middle-and low-income segments become poorer, the top segment has become richer. Upper-income households share of income rose from 29% in 1970 to 50% in 2020

-       Iraq war cost $1.9 TN, and Ukraine war has already cost $200 BN.

Never-ending wars are viewed to profit vested commercial and business interests of the elite contractors and business lobbies, so budgets can be diverted from domestic social safety and development programming.  Thomas Piketty in Capital in the 21st Century highlights the dangers to democracy if unchecked economic power is concentrated in a few hands, especially if these hands remain entrenched and do not change. In such a system, citizens feel that the rules are rigged for the benefit of these few powerful hands

The deep states are not adapting or modernizing with tech or A.I advancement. Most democratic countries have not harnessed innovation by blending government institutions with tech to create more responsive, citizens-feedback-driven transparent governance. The reaction of entrenched establishments is demonization of tech, digital media and an attempt to control  – recently in Pakistan with measures of firewall and VPN registration, which have further alienated citizens dependent on internet for livelihood and entertainment.

No Force on Earth Can Stop an Idea Whose Time Has Come – Vitor Hugo

Harvard Professor Joe Nye stated, “In the information age, it is the side that has the better story that wins.” A tech-age governance system can leverage digital media and cultural influence for soft power. For example, instead of running expensive, repetitive and boring campaigns like “Malaysia, Truly Asia” or “,Incredible India” use of Travel Influencers is cost effective, scalable and with greater results. It was Vloggers like Eva zu Beck who put Pakistan back on the travel destination map and it’s ranking jumped twenty points in just four years on the World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Development Index. 

This is the positive power and potential of incorporating tech in policy and governance. In 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, Yuval Noah Harari also emphasizes the importance of adaptable governance structures in the face of rapid technological change.

The fear of decline of U.S.A and the middle-class discontent from falling incomes is fuelling a rebellion against the political-bureaucratic elites, the business elites and the defence-industrial elites that are seen to serve their own interest and failing to deliver for majority of citizens. Senator Howard Dean was the first politician to voice this dis-content, followed by the Tea Party Movement, then Bernie Sanders and now President-elect Trump.

President-elect Trump won election on mandate of “changing the system, and so his attacks on the deep state are popular and have cross-party appeal.

President-elect Trump winning election on the back of new media and technology funding shows that old money and old networks of wall-street hedge funds, broadsheets of New York and Washington D.C have lost out to Silicon-Valley Bay Area, Austin and Miami. This is a visible tectonic shift in power from the industrial to technology age deep state.

President-elect Trump aided by visionary tech founders is claiming to “take an axe to the federal bureaucracy and stop wars to starve the old deep state of its resources”. The U.S. deep state can resist this transition of power, but it will only delay its inevitable decline, and that of the U.S.A, because existing deep state is not delivering prosperity for citizens, not innovating or modernizing and is seen to perpetuate its own power through wars. Our existing deep state is not adapting to A.I and must evolve or face the same fate as the Ottomans or the Shogunate deep state.

History compels the existing deep state to embrace new ideas on technology, governance and human fulfilment, as this can rejuvenate the deep state with infusion of a new vision. This will enable the deep state and the country to take the leap into the technology age, and deliver greater prosperity, innovation, security to compete against China, threat of cyber-attack and a self-evolving A.I.

IF  EVOLUTION  OF  DEEP  STATE  IS  RESISTED, HISTORY  SHOWS  THAT  EVOLUTION IS  FORCED  UPON  THROUGH  DEFEAT  IN  WAR , ECONOMIC  COLLAPSE  OR INTERNAL  REBELLION. THAT  WILL  MARK  END  OF  U.S.A’s  DOMINANCE   AS  A  GLOBAL  POWER.

The demand of FREE CITIZENS from its RULING DEEP STATE is to act in interest of the state, rather than its own. Will President-elect Trump provide an opening for old ideas of existing deep state or establishment to give way to new ones, as happened at the advent of the industrial age and liberal democracy. A new deep state for the age of A.I. can set up U.S.A for next 200 years of growth, prosperity and security and through it, for rest of the world.

Change is inevitable but there is an urgency for governance to adapt to technology and A.I.

Changing in guard or in the deep state is an idea whose time may have finally arrived.

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